Polymarket markets — Yes/No event contracts guide

How Polymarket markets work

Each market poses a yes/no question: "Will candidate X win the election?" or "Will BTC reach $100K by December?". Traders buy shares of Yes or No. The share price reflects the crowd's estimate of the probability. If you buy Yes at 65¢ and the event resolves Yes, you receive $1 per share — a 35¢ profit. If it resolves No, your shares are worthless.

Market types on Polymarket

Election markets

Presidential, congressional and international election outcomes. Prices translate directly to implied win probabilities. See our election markets guide for details.

Sports markets

Championship winners, season-long outcomes and event contracts for major sports. Not daily fixed-odds betting — these are long-horizon prediction markets. See our sports markets guide.

Crypto markets

Bitcoin price thresholds, ETF approvals, Ethereum upgrade outcomes and macro catalysts. See our crypto markets guide.

Pop culture markets

Awards, entertainment events and cultural prediction markets with yes/no resolution.

Understanding order books and liquidity

Polymarket uses an automated market maker (AMM) model. Each market has a liquidity pool funded by market creators. The price you see is the marginal price for the next share. Large orders move the price — this is called slippage. For thin markets, limit orders can reduce slippage but may not fill.

Resolution and UMA oracle

Markets resolve via the UMA optimistic oracle. A proposed outcome is posted, and there is a dispute window. If no one disputes within the liveness period, the outcome is final. Disputed markets go to UMA holders for final resolution. Always read the resolution criteria before trading — ambiguity can lead to unexpected outcomes.

USDC settlement explained

All trades settle in USDC, a US-dollar stablecoin on the Polygon blockchain. You deposit USDC to fund trades. When a market resolves in your favour, USDC is credited to your balance. Withdrawals go back to your wallet as USDC. Gas fees on Polygon are minimal, making micro-trades practical.

Trading strategies for Polymarket

• Probability edge: Buy when you believe the true probability differs from the market price.
• Hedging: Use correlated markets to offset risk across positions.
• Arbitrage: If Yes + No prices don't sum to $1, there's a small arbitrage opportunity.
• Event-driven: Trade around news catalysts that change probabilities quickly.

See our full trading strategies guide and fees & payouts guide for more detail.

Ready to start? Read the login guide or how Polymarket works.

Independent guide. Not the operator. 18+.